Better to be a dog?

There’s a Chinese proverb to the effect that “it’s better to be a dog in peaceful times than a man in chaotic times.” If there’s any wisdom in it, then this would be a good time to be canine.

The Bank of England’s Quarterly Inflation report today gave full expression to current economic uncertainty. Although Governor Mervyn King seems reasonably confident that we are not in for double dip recession, he has warned us that we can expect above-target inflation and weaker economic growth than forecast.

The Governor suggests that most of us will share the pain of a rate of inflation beyond the 2% target for at least another year as a result of rising commodity prices and higher taxes.

Reductions in domestic spending will mean that the UK’s economy will “depend heavily on developments in the world” and these developments, of course, are beyond the control or influence of the Bank or even the government, although we can expect at least some attempt to influence the global economy in the next G20 meeting.

Possibly even more disconcerting is the revelation that the experts who make up the august Monetary Policy Committee are finding it hard to agree among themselves about the prospects for 2011.

In the words of the Governor: “That underlines the uncertainty faced by the Committee. We cannot be sure which of the big risks to the outlook will materialise.” And they have all the data, the biggest brains and the most impressive predictive models!

Although this is all very disconcerting, we can at least plan and organise for uncertainty.

That’s arguably a better position to be than the one which we lived through until a couple of years ago when consumers, politicians and businesses had been working on the assumption of continuous growth fuelled by buoyant markets and credit without limit.

The fact is that we have always lived and worked through changing times and the future has always been unpredictable. Now that we know it beyond doubt, we can change the way we think, the way we work and the way we inspire innovation and rapid response in our organisations.